453
FXUS63 KUNR 270402
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1002 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
- WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS, RESULTING IN
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED THIS EVENING WITH HANDLING THE EARLIER BAND
OF RAIN/SNOW SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE BLACK HILLS, AND THEN DEGREE
OF COVERAGE OF RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING TOWARD RAPID CITY. HAVE EXTENDED SOME POPS AND VERY LIGHT
QPF WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS TONIGHT, BUT
EXPECTATION REMAINS THAT A DIMINISHING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES IN. OVERALL RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT (FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH QPF), ALTHOUGH EXPECT BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WHERE PRECIP IS SNOW ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES NOTED IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS WE TREND
INTO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MAIN FOCUS REMAINED TO INCREASE WINDS/WIND GUSTS OVER
NBM GUIDANCE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT DISPLACED OVERALL
FROM THE DRIEST RH VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A PERIOD OF
DECENT OVERLAP REMAINS EXPECTED THERE SUPPORTING THE WATCH.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING WEST/EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
RADAR HAS SOME LIGHT RETURNS JUST NORTH OF THE BLACK HILLS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, AS WELL AS SOME UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH AND LIGHT TO BREEZY,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN AS IT TAPS INTO DRIER AIR. SOME AREAS HAVE REACHED
0.1-0.2" QPF THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECTING LIGHTER AMOUNTS AS IT
GETS TOWARDS I-90. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION
BLACK HILLS, WHICH COULD SEE 0.05-0.1" QPF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NO
MOISTURE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS (20-30
MPH)MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEEKEND, WHERE A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED, AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK UP TO 20-30F ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH LOW RH AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD FOR SATURDAY, AND MORE HEADLINES
MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAVERS FURTHER OUT TOWARDS MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, AS LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
ECMWF POINTS TOWARDS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND BRINGING
ACTIVE WEATHER MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND, WHILE THE GFS HAS
RIDGING MID-WEEK, AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR TROUGHING TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO ACCURATELY HANDLE AN ONGOING BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SINKING SOUTH OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS EVENING.
LOOKING AT A HRRR/NAMNEST CONSENSUS AND MODIFYING BASED ON THE
OBSERVED RADAR TREND...MVFR CIGS AND NEARBY PRECIP MAY CONTINUE AT
TIMES FOR KRAP THROUGH 04Z/10PM, BEFORE A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH AND CONDITIONS GO VFR WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS ARE HOLDING ON AT KGCC AS WELL,
BUT SHOULD ALSO BREAK UP/LIFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING AN IMPROVING TREND NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. FRIDAY,
EXPECT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST
A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS BRUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND, COUPLED WITH LOW RH'S AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL PICK UP DUE TO A LOW LEVEL
JET PASSING THROUGH, RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES
FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. RH'S ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIP
INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL SD FOR SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING, WHERE THE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH'S COINCIDE.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE EVEN LOWER RH'S, HOWEVER THE WINDS
AREN'T QUITE AS BAD. LOW AFTERNOON RH'S WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS WELL WITH STRONGER WINDS RETURNING. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE MORE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR SDZ325-326-332>335.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...KSMITH
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...KSMITH
FIRE WEATHER...DYE
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