228
FXUS63 KUNR 280449
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1049 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH POOR RH RECOVERY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS 25 TO 45 MPH (GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE IN TRIPP COUNTY). EXPECT RH TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
TO NEAR 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OUTSIDE OF THE RFW.
REGARDLESS, GIVEN THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF
ANTECEDENT MOISTURE, ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE
OF THE RFW.
POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY (35-45 PERCENT) ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING, THE BLACK HILLS, AND FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
NIGHT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW BROAD RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE CWA,
WITH A LOW OVER WESTERN MT. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
AS UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN, EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK UP TO
20-30F ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL SD FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SUNDAY IS A BIT
MORE BORDERLINE, AS RH'S WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TEENS FOR SOME
AREAS, HOWEVER HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE.
MONDAY CONTINUES THE LOW RH TREND, BUT STRONGER WINDS RETURNING.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY,
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAVERS FURTHER OUT TOWARDS MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS POINT TOWARDS A TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARDS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND A
STRONGER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE
PLAINS, SETTING UP MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND, COUPLED WITH LOW RH'S AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL PICK UP DUE TO A LOW LEVEL
JET PASSING THROUGH, RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH AT
TIMES FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. RH'S ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO DIP INTO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL SD FOR SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOW RH'S MAY COINCIDE.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE EVEN LOWER RH'S, HOWEVER THE WINDS
AREN'T QUITE AS BAD. LOW AFTERNOON RH'S WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS WELL WITH STRONGER WINDS RETURNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE MORE
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR SUNDAY, AND HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM MDT /7 PM
CDT/ SATURDAY FOR SDZ325-326-332>335.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...SE
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...SE
FIRE WEATHER...DYE
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