032
FXUS63 KUNR 150404
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1004 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY; A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY.
- COOLER WITH RAIN/SNOW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- TRENDING WARMER SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW CROSSING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING
TOWARD EAST RIVER SD. KUDX RADAR SHOWS LINGERING SHOWERS PUSHING
TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE WAVE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS RHS DROP TO 15% OR LESS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT, SO NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. WILL LET THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT THE SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
AREA WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER, BUT RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS
LOOK TOO MARGINAL AND LIMITED IN AREA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE CRITICAL ON THURSDAY GIVEN BREEZY WINDS
AND DRY RH MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 IN WESTERN SD. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE NEXT NOTEWORTHY WEATHER EVENT WILL BE
LATER IN THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR A BAND OF OF RAIN TO DEVELOP THU
EVENING, THEN CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ACROSS NE WY, THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS...PERHAPS INTO NW SD. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE 0.10-0.40" OF
QPF WITH 1-3" OF SNOW...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
HIGHER BLACK HILLS. WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM TRENDS WITHIN
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ALONG WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM AS MOISTURE STREAMS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NE WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL SD, ALTHOUGH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WARMER AND DRY TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RH FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S,
PARTICULARLY PORTIONS OF NE WY AND SW SD, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS/IF FREQUENT GUSTS > 25
MPH WILL DEVELOP. EVEN WARMER (ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90 IN SD) AND
DRIER THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE; A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE WESTON COUNTY
PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHERN SD.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY EVENING BRINGING COOLER AIR AND
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW. UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES, ALTHOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPING. PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH, ALTHOUGH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS LACKING (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ~100-125% OF NORMAL). BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS (NBM PROB
QPF >0.25" ~30-55%).
WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TOMORROW (WED) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS RH FALLS INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S. BEST OVERLAP OF LOW RH AND STRONGER WINDS FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES IN WY THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
SD INTO THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FOOTHILLS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WHETHER WINDS WILL REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TO WARRANT A
RFW; WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR THE WESTON COUNTY
PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHERN SD AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME MINIMUM RH WILL FALL AS LOW AS 12-14
PERCENT THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SPOTTY
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY COMPLICATE THINGS THURSDAY BY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER AND RH HIGHER. HOWEVER, PLAN FOR AT LEAST
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY (AND WEDNESDAY).
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ317.
UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...SE
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