295
FNUS73 KUNR 161101
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR 87 FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
501 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON APRIL 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
RANGING FROM 24 TO 30 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T EXPECTED BUT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THE FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE FIRE
SITE BY AROUND 1500-1600 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S WITH HUMIDITIES
RECOVERING TO 89 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH ALL NIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 26 MPH.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 1 TO 2" (LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF AROUND 0.15"). PRECIP WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING FOR THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 36 MPH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER 1500-1600.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9500 TO 10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40 TO 50 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 45
TO 55 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING
TO 35 TO 45 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........31 38 45 41 44 48 88 88 88 88 88 88
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............52 52 53 55 57 60 61 63 64 62 62 59
RH..............39 39 37 35 33 29 27 26 24 26 27 30
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW N N
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 9 8
20 FT WIND GUST.30 32 33 36 32 32 31 31 30 29 28 25
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.3 5.0 6.3 7.6 8.6 10 7.3 6.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.40 45 49 53 52 48 45 41 38 35 30 25
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 23.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
26 MPH.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 TO 1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 97 94 91 92 93 94 93 93
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RS SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
TEMP............52 46 41 38 35 32 30 29 28 27 26 24
RH..............44 60 76 82 85 89 85 81 81 81 78 77
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N NW
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7
20 FT WIND GUST.23 23 24 26 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 24
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.7 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.8 1.0 1.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W NW N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 21 21 22 22 22 23 22 21 20 21 22
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 TO 6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 40
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........92 92 91 91 88 86 83 81 78 76 67 59
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............24 24 26 28 30 32 33 35 36 36 35 34
RH..............74 71 63 58 53 49 47 43 40 40 41 41
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.24 24 25 26 26 28 28 29 29 30 30 30
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.9 6.5 6.2 5.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 25 28 29 29 29 29 31 33 35 37 37
FORECASTER...EW
REQUESTED BY...RYAN FLYNN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2610047.5/UNR
.DELDT 04/16/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JEREMY.DALMAN@USDA.GOV,WAYNE.YANDERS@USDA.GOV,SDGPC@FIRENET.GOV,THOMAS.ROERICK@USDA.GOV
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