749
FXUS63 KUNR 162346
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
546 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW.
- WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWESTERN SD. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
FOR AREAS THE FRONT HASN'T GONE THROUGH, WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH
HAVE NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES SIT IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, 50S AND 60S TO THE NORTH.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS STARTING TO POP UP OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.
A FEW FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE DAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, COUPLED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, IS BRINGING NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHT RELIEF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
BEHIND THE FRONT. MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES GIVEN THE TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION, BUT GENERALLY MOST PLACES WILL SEE A TRANSITION
TO SNOW AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND RECENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES, NOT EXPECTING ANY TO REALLY STICK AND CAUSE ISSUES.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT A RANGE OF
BETWEEN A TRACE AND 0.2". THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN A
BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN WY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS AND INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR QPF
>= 0.25" RANGE FROM 70-99 PERCENT IN THIS AREA. DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION RANGE FROM 0.25-0.7" IN THIS REGION.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. EXPECT COLDER TEMPS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT. LOWS DIP INTO THE
20S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS, BUT GIVEN THE
RECENT MOISTURE, AREAS IN THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHWESTERN SD COULD
SEE SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OVER THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, PROMPTING A WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY, AND 70S/80S FOR MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER
RANGE MODELS POINT AT A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT AN EXPANDING AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
AS LOW CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR VSYBS FROM K2WX TO KSPF TO
KGCC COMMON TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST JUST EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS (~45KT GUSTS) THIS EVENING, TAILING OFF FRIDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS RH FALLS INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. BEST
OVERLAP OF LOW RH AND STRONGER WINDS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WESTON COUNTY IN WY THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD.
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
THESE AREAS. DAYTIME MINIMUM RH WILL FALL AS LOW AS 12-14 PERCENT,
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IS ALSO SWITCHING WINDS
TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, AND BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RH
RELIEF FOR AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 0.7" OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ030-031-042-073.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ317.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
FIRE WEATHER...DYE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page