086
FXUS63 KUNR 170435
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1035 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW.
- WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED JET STREAK LIFT AND PRECIP BAND WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE FA OVERNIGHT, WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN FAST
FRIDAY. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTER A BRIEF
LULL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADV INTO NW SD
AND EXTENDED THE TIME THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER FRIDAY
WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE TEENS AND 20S MOST PLACES. WARMING
UP NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDS RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWESTERN SD. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
FOR AREAS THE FRONT HASN'T GONE THROUGH, WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH
HAVE NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES SIT IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, 50S AND 60S TO THE NORTH.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS STARTING TO POP UP OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.
A FEW FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE DAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, COUPLED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, IS BRINGING NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHT RELIEF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
BEHIND THE FRONT. MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES GIVEN THE TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION, BUT GENERALLY MOST PLACES WILL SEE A TRANSITION
TO SNOW AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND RECENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES, NOT EXPECTING ANY TO REALLY STICK AND CAUSE ISSUES.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT A RANGE OF
BETWEEN A TRACE AND 0.2". THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN A
BAND THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN WY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS AND INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR QPF
>= 0.25" RANGE FROM 70-99 PERCENT IN THIS AREA. DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION RANGE FROM 0.25-0.7" IN THIS REGION.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. EXPECT COLDER TEMPS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT. LOWS DIP INTO THE
20S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS, BUT GIVEN THE
RECENT MOISTURE, AREAS IN THE BLACK HILLS TO SOUTHWESTERN SD COULD
SEE SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POP UP IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OVER THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, PROMPTING A WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY, AND 70S/80S FOR MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER
RANGE MODELS POINT AT A RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AT SUNRISE (~35KTS
GUSTS), STARTING OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST. WINDS WILL IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ001-012-013-030-031-
042-073-078.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page