017
FXUS63 KUNR 180407
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1007 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WITH LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
- WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAISED/ADDED SOME LOW
POPS FOR EXPECTED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SAT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NE WY AND WESTERN SD. WAA PLUS A LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. BREEZY NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN SAT, ESP ACROSS NW SD WHERE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. THINGS WARM UP AND DRY OUT NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR MODELS AND WATER VAPOR SHOW UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN MN/SK BORDER, WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO COLORADO. SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER NORTHERN WYOMING. RADAR SHOWS SPOTTY
ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE REACHING THE SURFACE. FURTHER EAST IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD, A LINE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 20S IN THE BLACK
HILLS, 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.
SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD, LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME CAMS DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP IN NORTHWESTERN SD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE SO HAVE LEFT OUT POPS FOR
NOW. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, PROMPTING A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
REACHING BACK INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY. WARMING TREND COUPLED WITH
DRIER WEATHER MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, WILL BRING BACK FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY, HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD NEGATE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX HEADLINES. MON-WED HAS A
BETTER CHANCE OF OVERLAPPING LOW AFTERNOON RH WITH GUSTY WINDS
BRINGING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE HAS TRANSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT, AS SOME LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT FLOW TRYING TO DEVELOP
AS THE TROUGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE ROCKIES, WHILE OTHERS HAVE
UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE CONUS. REGARDLESS, MODEL TRENDS
POINT TO A DECENT CHANCE WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND COOLING TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS/PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN KBYG TO KRAP.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN SATURDAY MORNING, GUSTING UP TO ~40KTS,
LASTING THROUGH SUNSET.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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