466
FXUS63 KUNR 051841
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1241 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX PUSHING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN MANITOBA WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD AIR ALOFT
+ STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN A CELLULAR CU FIELD
WITH VIRGA/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS NW SD. LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WAVE
PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
COOLER WEATHER PERSISTS TOMORROW WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AS
SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WAVE THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE AREA SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD, POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TAF SITES.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...DYE
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