672
FXUS63 KUNR 071818
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1218 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY; SEVERE WEATHER IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- MUCH WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE
TO INCREASED WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STORM TRACK HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH SOME IN FORECAST MODELS FOR BOTH THUR AND SAT IMPULSES. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A SW SHIFT IN THE HIGHER POPS, MOST NOTICEABLE IN
WESTERN SD. DROPPED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES THUR AND ESP FRI AS THE
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH FASTER. STILL ON TRACK FOR A SIG WARM UP
NEXT WEEK WITH 80S AND FEW 90S POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL ELSE
ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA, AS WEAK TROUGHING SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. 18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW-TOP CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S
OVER THE REGION, WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY,
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, WHILE FRIDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD 70S.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES THE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE CWA.
THE BETTER FORCING REGION FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
FROM NORTHEASTERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. LOW
CAPE VALUES (200-400 J/KG) AND SOME LOW EFF SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHOWERY REGIONS. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES, NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL, BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS 40-50MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR
SHOWERS/STORMS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
SATURDAY AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THORUGH WY INTO SD/NE. UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION TODAY, STARTING IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
INCREASING FOR KGCC, AND HAVE THUS ADDED PREDOMINANT
-SHRA WHILE REFINING THE TIMING ON THE PROB30 FOR -TSRA.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING,
THE BLACK HILLS, AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, IN AN
OTHERWISE SOLIDLY VFR ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KTS.
FURTHER EAST...CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINS
LOWER AT KRAP AND HAVE CONTINUED A PROB30 WITH REFINED TIMING.
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST OF KRAP INTO THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE/KSMITH
AVIATION...GS
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