730
FXUS63 KUNR 072006
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND AS WE MOVE TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY; SEVERE WEATHER IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- MUCH WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE
TO INCREASED WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA, AS WEAK TROUGHING SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. WEAK WAVE IS RIDING
THE NORTHWEST FLOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MT INTO WY. 18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE STRETCHING
FROM EASTERN MT DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN WY AND DOWN INTO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ALONG THE BOUNDARY
IN OUR WESTERN CWA. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S OVER THE REGION, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CAPE AND SHEAR ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME
STORMS WITH MAYBE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH, BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY. SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.1" OR
MORE SHOWING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS (50-80%). UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN CONUS PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES FRIDAY,
PROMOTING WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW
70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL, HOWEVER CAMS DO TRY TO PAINT SOME LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE FA. CURRENT TRACK OF THE WAVE POINTS TO A SIMILAR
SETUP FROM TODAY, WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE REGION SEEING
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. CURRENTLY
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IMPACTFUL DAY WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION TODAY, STARTING IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
INCREASING FOR KGCC, AND HAVE THUS ADDED PREDOMINANT
-SHRA WHILE REFINING THE TIMING ON THE PROB30 FOR -TSRA.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING,
THE BLACK HILLS, AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, IN AN
OTHERWISE SOLIDLY VFR ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 35-40KTS.
FURTHER EAST...CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINS
LOWER AT KRAP AND HAVE CONTINUED A PROB30 WITH REFINED TIMING.
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST OF KRAP INTO THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...GS
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