181
FXUS63 KUNR 081130
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY WITH BREEZY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
FIRING OFF THE BLACK HILLS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY RETURN TO
THE REGION SATURDAY.
- TRENDING INTO A MUCH WARMER AND MORE NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY MONDAY, WEDNESDAY,
AND THURSDAY DUE TO HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITIES, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION DISSIPATES. THERE COULD BE A ROUGE SHOWER/SPRINKLE
LATER TONIGHT, BUT GIVEN VERY DRY LL'S AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING,
LEFT POPS OUT TONIGHT. WARMER AND BREEZY FRI. LINGERING
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE BH AND SE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN DRY BL, NOT EXPECTING MUCH. THE NEXT
IMPULSE ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS INTO
SAT ACROSS THE SW THIRD. SHARP CUTOFF EXPECTED IN PRECIP SIMILAR
TO TODAY, WITH THE NE HALF LIKELY REMAINING DRY. AFTER SEASONAL
TEMPS SUNDAY, EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA, AS WEAK TROUGHING SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. WEAK WAVE IS RIDING
THE NORTHWEST FLOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MT INTO WY. 18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE STRETCHING
FROM EASTERN MT DOWN INTO NORTHEASTERN WY AND DOWN INTO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ALONG THE BOUNDARY
IN OUR WESTERN CWA. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S OVER THE REGION, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CAPE AND SHEAR ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME
STORMS WITH MAYBE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH, BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY. SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.1" OR
MORE SHOWING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS (50-80%). UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN CONUS PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES FRIDAY,
PROMOTING WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW
70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL, HOWEVER CAMS DO TRY TO PAINT SOME LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA, SO HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIGHT POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE FA. CURRENT TRACK OF THE WAVE POINTS TO A SIMILAR
SETUP FROM TODAY, WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE REGION SEEING
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. CURRENTLY
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IMPACTFUL DAY WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 14-16Z/8-10AM THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS WITH SOME INFLUENCE AT KRAP, CONTINUING
THROUGH 00-01Z/6-7PM THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOSTLY JUST SOME HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. A FEW HIGH-RES MODELS HINT AT A
COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FIRING OVER/OFF OF THE BLACK HILLS AND
TRACKING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NEBRASKA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY IMPACTFUL AND AT THIS TIME
DOES NOT WARRANT A PROB30 AT KRAP. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
THICKEN TONIGHT AS WE HEAD TOWARD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY, BUT MOST IMPACTS SHOULD FALL JUST AFTER THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE/KSMITH
AVIATION...KSMITH
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