987
FXUS63 KUNR 082044
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RELATIVELY QUIET TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AND LOW
TEMPS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST FLOW COULD KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT
STRONGER STORM CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- MUCH WARMER AND NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO HOT
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITIES, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEEK)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN SD AND NE WY COULD BE BROKEN UP INTO 3
PARTS: THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW (SATURDAY), COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE VERY WARM TEMPS NEXT
WEEK.
STARTING WITH TONIGHT, NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA HAVE BROUGHT
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF NE WY, THE BLACK HILLS, AND THE AREA
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. OCCASIONALLY LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED OUT OF THESE SHOWERS BUT THE STORM CELLS DON'T LAST LONG.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT TRACK OF
THE WAVE POINTS TO A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE REGION SEEING
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE FOR
FOLKS IN NE WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE SD PLAINS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
LOOKING TO NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL GIVE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN SD AND
NORTHWESTERN WY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL CALM AS WE
MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (~03Z). A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, SHIFTING WIND DIRECTION SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGER IN THE KGCC AREA COMPARED TO
THE KRAP AREA. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL
BUILD IN STARTING SATURDAY MORNING (~10Z). GREATER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH TAF SITES AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (18Z AND ON).
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...GS
AVIATION...SCHWEIGERT
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