363
FXUS63 KUNR 090340
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
940 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RELATIVELY QUIET TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AND LOW
TEMPS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST FLOW COULD KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT
STRONGER STORM CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- MUCH WARMER AND NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO HOT
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITIES, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST WAVE IS PROGRESSING ACROSS ND.
THE TAIL END OF THIS WAVE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NW SD INTO CENTRAL SD. THE NEXT WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE PAC
NW AND WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION SAT. THE BEST OVERLAP OF
MOISTURE, LIFT, AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO
FAR SW SD SAT AFTERNOON, WITH SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO THE NE
ACROSS NW INTO CENTRAL SD. HENCE, THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN
PRECIP, WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR SW FA TO DRY CONDS ACROSS FAR
NW SD. GUSTY WINDS AND PEA HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY TS
TOMORROW. THINGS DRY OUT SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALLOWING FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS FAR NW SD AND
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK, WITH
80S AND 90S EXPECTED BY MONDAY ON THE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEEK)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN SD AND NE WY COULD BE BROKEN UP INTO 3
PARTS: THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW (SATURDAY), COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE VERY WARM TEMPS NEXT
WEEK.
STARTING WITH TONIGHT, NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA HAVE BROUGHT
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF NE WY, THE BLACK HILLS, AND THE AREA
SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. OCCASIONALLY LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
DETECTED OUT OF THESE SHOWERS BUT THE STORM CELLS DON'T LAST LONG.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE AREA. ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENT TRACK OF
THE WAVE POINTS TO A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE REGION SEEING
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE FOR
FOLKS IN NE WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE SD PLAINS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
LOOKING TO NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL GIVE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 06Z BEFORE RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING, THE
BLACK HILLS (AROUND 10Z), AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA (AROUND
12Z). MVFR VIS/CIGS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS MAY BE PRESENT NEAR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...GS
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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