069
FXUS63 KUNR 240423
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1023 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH DAILY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN EXCEPTIONS ARE
SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND LOW END CHANCES
FOR THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT, HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TRACKING WEST-TO-EAST THROUGH NE WY AND THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
POPPING UP IN SW MONTANA. WITHOUT MUCH SUPPORT, THESE SHOWERS
SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH IN TERMS OF IMPACT TO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS ALLOWED TO RIDE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES CROSSING WESTERN SD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME OF THESE
IMPULSES CROSSING NW SD THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS. SATELLITE SHOWS CU
FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE HILLS...AND KUDX RADAR HIGHER TILTS
SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TRYING TO INITIATE ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE HILLS. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVES
CROSSING CENTRAL WY WHICH WOULD LIMIT NE WY DEVELOPMENT TO EXTENSIVE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL MAKE FURTHER POP ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE PUSHING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 70S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WITHIN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
COULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS, BUT
WOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WITH HIGH BASES, PRECIP THAT DOES
DEVELOP MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
MEMORIAL DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. COULD AGAIN
SEE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HILLS. TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK COULD BRING A BIG PATTERN SHIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE STRONG RIDGING BUILDS WELL
INTO THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN PLAINS. DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS...AND AN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOW EXACTLY THIS PANS OUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE ECM AND GFS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BUT THIS WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR MUCH-NEEDED
PRECIPITATION...AND PERHAPS BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG/SEVERE
WEATHER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY INTO THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS REGION, AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE BLACK
HILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...GS
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...DYE
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