347
FXUS63 KUNR 151106
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
506 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. GENERALLY DRY, EXCEPT
CHANCES OF STORMS OVER NW SOUTH DAKOTA.
- BREEZY MONDAY AND WINDY WEDNESDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
UNSETTLED NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN GRAZING IMPULSES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE BREEZY WINDS
AND CONTINUED DRY AIR. THIS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDS THROUGH MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW SD, MOST PLACES IN THE
FA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEK UNTIL MAYBE THIS WEEKEND WHEN BETTER
MOISTURE RETURNS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD A COUPLE ZONES TO THE
REG FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
UPPER RIDGING IS SITTING ACROSS THE PAC NW. H70 THERMAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT, CREEPING INTO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BUT FIRST, ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S TO MID 30S. THE
COLDEST SPOTS AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE NE WY
PLAINS. THEN THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW, CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR NW SD, BUT
BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY, BRINGING WITH IT TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE A REPEAT OF
MONDAYS, WITH CHANCES ACROSS NW SD. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN DRY. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL REPEAT OVER NW SD...PERHAPS SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS THAT DAY AS A
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
COULD BRING GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE NEXT WEEKEND
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA STARTING AROUND 17-19Z TODAY.
TRANSIENT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.
WIDESPREAD, GUSTY (~30KTS) NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MID-
MORNING AND LAST THROUGH 02-03Z THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. WARMER, DRY AIR
TOMORROW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE DRY
AIR WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH TO
SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ322-326-332-333.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ317.
UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...WONG
FIRE WEATHER...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page