242
FXUS63 KUNR 161802
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1202 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER TUESDAY, HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90, WITH COOLER
HIGHS IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WARM AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- WINDY ON WEDNESDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- PASSING ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE IN NW SD THROUGH THURSDAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
BREEZY, DRY, AND SEMI-UNSETTLED FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ESE ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT MAINLY SEASONAL TEMPS WITH A FEW WARMER DAYS, TUE BEING ONE
OF THEM AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY FAR NW SD, CLOSER
TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH BASED
SHOWERS MAY CREEP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FA TUE NIGHT AS A
STRONG JET STREAK MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE EXTENDED LOW POPS
SOUTH FOR THIS. WINDY CONDS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR WED, ALTHOUGH
THE FASTEST FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC LOOKS TO SHIFT THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE MORNING AS THE UPPER VORT MAX ARRIVES EARLIER. THIS
WOULD LIMIT WINDS SOME AS FLOW WOULD BE DECREASING ALOFT WHEN
DEEPER MIXING OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT SOLID ADV
CRITERIA WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW LOCATIONS HITTING WARNING LEVELS
ACROSS NW SD.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING NEAR THE WEST SIDE OF THE HUDSON BAY
IS OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. IT'S
GIVING THE CWA NORTHWEST FLOW WITH JUST ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION TO GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS. THE STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONTAINED TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF SD WHILE THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DRY FOR THE MOST PART, SAVE FOR A FEW CELLS
THAT HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THESE CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY CENTERED AROUND LITTLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND
THE MAIN LOW THAT WILL KEEP SPINNING NEAR HUDSON BAY. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S AND TOMORROW'S HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST AT UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, A LITTLE
STRONGER IN THE NW SD PLAINS WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS COULD BE UP
TO 25 MPH, BEFORE CALMING DOWN IN THE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TOMORROW IN TERMS OF THE
POPS FORECAST, CONTINUED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE DIFFERENCES
THOUGH. FOR STARTERS, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER,
ONLY REACHING THE 70S FOR THE PLAINS AND ONLY THE 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR THE BLACK HILLS. THE OTHER DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
NEARING 45 TO 55 ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE SD PLAINS. THURSDAY WILL BE A CALMER WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING BACK MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND WARMER TEMPS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 35KT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW SD TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH INCREASED PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT. STRONG
NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ARE EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS.
WARMER, DRY AIR CONTINUES TOMORROW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WY AND
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH TO SUPPORT CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LINGER AROUND THIS WEEK,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
013-025-072-073-078.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-026-027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-
074>077.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ322-326.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ315-317.
UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...GS
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