840
FXUS63 KUNR 162010
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
210 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TOMORROW WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 55 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE OF THIS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN THE NW SD PLAINS.
- A LITTLE COOLER TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS HIGHS DIP BACK INTO THE
70S. WARM AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN
TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY).
- PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING NEAR THE WEST SIDE OF THE HUDSON
BAY IS OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. IT’S
GIVING THE CWA NORTHWEST FLOW WITH JUST ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION TO GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS. SO FAR, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONTAINED TO
EASTERN SD WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DRY FOR THE MOST
PART, SAVE FOR A FEW CELLS THAT HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THESE
CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CENTERED AROUND LITTLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING
AROUND THE MAIN LOW THAT WILL KEEP SPINNING NEAR HUDSON BAY. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S AND TOMORROW’S HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE FAR NORTHWEST SD
COUNTIES AND THE FAR SOUTHERN SD COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 80 RESPECTIVELY. NE WY LOOKS TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
TOMORROW’S WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THOUGH. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEARING 45 TO 55 ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SD PLAINS.
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NW
SD PLAINS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING
AT THIS TIME, SO DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY. WILL
UPDATE IF NEEDED.
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S. A BIG
DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE CALMER WINDS WITH EXPECTED NORTHWEST WINDS
AT AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING BACK WARMER TEMPS AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 35KT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW SD TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH INCREASED PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS OVERNIGHT. STRONG
NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ARE EXPECTED...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20 TO 45 MPH TO SUPPORT CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
013-025-072-073-078.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-026-027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-
074>077.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ322-326.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ315-317.
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...GS
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