694
FXUS63 KUNR 170449
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1049 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTS FROM 45-55 MPH ON THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL ND
THROUGH EASTERN CO. WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SPINNING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST WAVE AFFECTING THE DAKOTAS
WITH SHRA/TS THIS EVENING, TAPPING INTO LIMITED BUOYANCY AS ECHOES
ZIP SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT, EXPECT 30-45KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO DEVELOP, MIXING
OUT IN THE MORNING ON THE SD PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH LIKELY
GIVEN FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, LATEST MOS, AND NBM GUIDANCE
(60-90% CHANCE 50+ MPH GUSTS).
REST OF FORECAST LEFT LARGELY INTACT WITH WETTER/COOLER PATTERN
CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING NEAR THE WEST SIDE OF THE HUDSON
BAY IS OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. IT'S
GIVING THE CWA NORTHWEST FLOW WITH JUST ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION TO GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS. SO FAR, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONTAINED TO
EASTERN SD WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DRY FOR THE MOST
PART, SAVE FOR A FEW CELLS THAT HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THESE
CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY CENTERED AROUND LITTLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING
AROUND THE MAIN LOW THAT WILL KEEP SPINNING NEAR HUDSON BAY. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S AND TOMORROW'S HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE FAR NORTHWEST SD
COUNTIES AND THE FAR SOUTHERN SD COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 80 RESPECTIVELY. NE WY LOOKS TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
TOMORROW'S WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THOUGH. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEARING 45 TO 55 ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SD PLAINS.
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NW
SD PLAINS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING
AT THIS TIME, SO DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY. WILL
UPDATE IF NEEDED.
THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S. A BIG
DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE CALMER WINDS WITH EXPECTED NORTHWEST WINDS
AT AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING BACK WARMER TEMPS AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP WITH EARNEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 45KT WILL
OCCUR ON THE WESTERN SD PLAINS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SD
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS FROM 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DIP AS LOW AS 18 PERCENT, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
(<=15%) THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE UP THE
DIFFERENCE AS WELL AS ANTECEDENT D2 TO D3 DROUGHT AND VERY DRY
WEATHER OVER THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THUS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 30 MPH. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
013-025-072-073-078.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-026-027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-
074>077.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ321-322-
325-326-332-333.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ315-317.
UPDATE...HELGESON
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...GS
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