053
FXUS63 KUNR 060451
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1051 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED HOT WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- COOLER, NEAR-NORMAL, TEMPS RETURN MID WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HOT WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE
WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK. ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD ARE NOW IN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE WENT PRETTY MINIMAL
ON OVERNIGHT POPS BASED OFF OF GUIDANCE, BUT MAY NEED TO BE
UPDATED AS SURFACE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO THE CWA, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO POPS AND QPF FOR TOMORROW BASED OFF THE LATEST
CAMS. ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED FOR MONDAY, AND NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND WEBCAMS AROUND THE AREA SHOW
VERY LITTLE GOING ON IN THE SKIES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING. A FEW CLOUDS HAVE COME AND GONE OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS, HINTING AT THE CAP IS HOLDING, REDUCING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, STEADY AS WE GO WITH
NO REAL BIG CHANGES - CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS A
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
THAT WOULD TRACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT,
SWINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD GET A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.
TO START THE WEEK, MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRING BACK THE STORM
CHANCES. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY. THIS IS WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, STRETCHING FROM THE
BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE, OUT OF WYOMING, THAT COULD BRING STORMS TO SOUTH DAKOTA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FROM A BIG PICTURE VIEW, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT LITTLE RIDGING RIDING WAVES
THAT COULD GIVE PASSING CHANCES FOR STORMS MID WEEK.
A QUICK LOOK AT LATE THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUT SOME VERY WARM AIR OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO 100S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS NE WY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 18 TO 24 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 06-10Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN SD AFTER 15-17Z MONDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORM CHANCES ALSO ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD AND
NE WY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...DYE
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...SE
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