157
FXUS63 KUNR 061131
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
531 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED HOT WEATHER TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- COOLER, NEAR-NORMAL, TEMPS RETURN MID WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HOT WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE
WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK. ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD ARE NOW IN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE WENT PRETTY MINIMAL
ON OVERNIGHT POPS BASED OFF OF GUIDANCE, BUT MAY NEED TO BE
UPDATED AS SURFACE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO THE CWA, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO POPS AND QPF FOR TOMORROW BASED OFF THE LATEST
CAMS. ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED FOR MONDAY, AND NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND WEBCAMS AROUND THE AREA SHOW
VERY LITTLE GOING ON IN THE SKIES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING. A FEW CLOUDS HAVE COME AND GONE OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS, HINTING AT THE CAP IS HOLDING, REDUCING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, STEADY AS WE GO WITH
NO REAL BIG CHANGES - CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS A
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
THAT WOULD TRACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT,
SWINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD GET A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT.
TO START THE WEEK, MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRING BACK THE STORM
CHANCES. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY. THIS IS WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, STRETCHING FROM THE
BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE, OUT OF WYOMING, THAT COULD BRING STORMS TO SOUTH DAKOTA
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FROM A BIG PICTURE VIEW, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT LITTLE RIDGING RIDING WAVES
THAT COULD GIVE PASSING CHANCES FOR STORMS MID WEEK.
A QUICK LOOK AT LATE THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUT SOME VERY WARM AIR OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO 100S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT, ALONG WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AFTER 19Z/1PM THIS AFTERNOON FIRST
OVER THE BLACK HILLS, THEN EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED, BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR/UNDER ANY
THUNDERSTORM. STORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING, AND HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP AT
KGCC BETWEEN 03-08Z/9PM-2AM BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS. OTHERWISE,
OVERALL STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING, BEFORE INCREASING REGIONWIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...DYE
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...KSMITH
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