995
FXUS63 KUNR 061727
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-ACTIVE THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION, WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
-VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE AND
DANGEROUS HEAT SAT AND SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
IMPULSE FILLED WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION.
NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. TUES LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS AS APPRECIABLE CAPE AND MODERATE BULK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH THROUGH
MOST THE FA THIS MORNING AND WILL HANG UP IN SCENTRAL SD. SFC
BASED TS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS
DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWS THE CAP TO BE OVERCOME. FURTHER WEST,
ISOLATED TS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BH
WHERE EDDY CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONVECTION WILL WANE ACROSS THESE AREAS INTO THE
EVENING. HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT POS THETA-E
ADV ACROSS NORTHEAST WY OVERNIGHT, WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS
POSSIBLE, AS HINTED AT IN HIRES MODELS. STORMS WILL CARRY ACROSS
NW SD OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SFC FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS
THE FA TUE, THE LOCATION OF WHICH WILL BE DICTATED BY OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH. MODERATELY STRONG IMPULSE WILL KICK OUT
OF WY/MT IN THE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL DRIVE CI THERE.
STORMS MAY ALSO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT IF CAPPING CAN BE OVERCOME,
THE STRENGTH OF WHICH VARIES IN FORECAST MODELS (CAPPING THAT IS).
GIVEN PROGGED ML CAPE OF 1-2 KJ/KG, DEEP BULK LAYER SHEAR OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS, EXPECT SUPERCELLS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG ROTATING
UPDRAFTS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION, GIVEN ESE FLOW INVOF OF THE SFC FRONT, THERE WILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR TORNADOES. STORMS WILL CARRY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THUR AS
SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH WEAK STABILITY AND
ADDITIONAL IMPULSES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, WITH DRY AND HOT CONDS EXPECTED. IMPRESSIVE TEMPS OF 35
TO ALMOST 40C AT H85 WITH CLOSE TO 6000 H5 HEIGHTS OVER WY, WILL
OFFER RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 100S WITH 110 TO
115 POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS, ESP SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED ITS WAS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA,
BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON (THOUGH THEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY). VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHEAST
WY MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
LIGHT IMPACTS, BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER/AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NORTH AND EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
TO THE KRAP AREA BEFORE BURNING OFF LATER.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...SCHWEIGERT
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