866
FXUS63 KUNR 071719
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1119 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-ACTIVE THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION, WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, MORE
ISOLATED WED AND THUR
-VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPS POSSIBLE AND DANGEROUS HEAT
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
IMPULSE FILLED WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. NEAR
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BEST CHANCES TODAY. SFC FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE FA TODAY. THE FRONT HAS SETTLED FURTHER SOUTH THAT PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS INDICATED YESTERDAY, WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE BEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODERATELY STRONG IMPULSE WILL KICK OUT OF
WY/MT IN THE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL DRIVE CI THERE.
STORMS MAY ALSO FIRE ALONG THE PINE RIDGE AND INVOF OF THE FRONT
IF CAPPING CAN BE OVERCOME. ANOTHER LOCATION FOR CI WILL BE
NORTHERN BH IF THE INHIBITION IS ALSO OVERCOME. GIVEN PROGGED ML
CAPE OF 1-2.5 KJ/KG, DEEP BULK LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
(HIGHEST NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT), EXPECT SUPERCELLS TO BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. BEST CHANCES FOR ROTATING STORMS WILL BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT. STILL A VERY SMALL WINDOW FOR
TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS NEAR THE SFC FRONT, WHICH WILL START
SHIFTING SW INTO SW SD THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL CARRY ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THE MORNING WED AS ELEVATED ACTIVITY. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WED AND THUR AS SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH WEAK STABILITY AND ADDITIONAL IMPULSES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD WED WITH CHANCES EXPANDING
TO THE ENTIRE FA THUR. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, WITH DRY AND HOT CONDS EXPECTED. IMPRESSIVE TEMPS OF 35
TO ALMOST 40C AT H85 WITH CLOSE TO 6000 H5 HEIGHTS OVER WY, WILL
OFFER RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 100S WITH 110 TO
115 POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS, ESP SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH STORM CHANCES RETURNING AS THE ACTIVE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED, ALLOWING DAYTIME HEATING TO
DESTABILIZE THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR IMPACTS AT
KRAP, SO WE HAVE RETAINED A TEMPO FOR TSRA WHILE A PROB30 REMAINS
FOR KGCC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE STORMS (AROUND
22Z/4PM). MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM,
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECASTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS, INCLUDING KRAP, SO EXPECT DOWN TO POTENTIALLY IFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE THEY BURN OFF.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...SCHWEIGERT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page