079
FXUS63 KUNR 101719
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPS POSSIBLE AND DANGEROUS HEAT.
-ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 758 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
BASED ON GUIDANCE CONSISTENCY AND IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE CONVERTED THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH TO A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS. THIS WILL
BE IN EFFECT NOON MDT SATURDAY AND RUN THROUGH 800 PM MDT TUESDAY
EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION, DRIVING A SUSTAINED WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO
THE REGION, THEN PUSH INTO THE 100S SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSISTS OVER
THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWEST SD FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE RIDGE, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AND
DEWPOINTS REMAINING LOW, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE ONE OF THE
PRIMARY FOCUSES GOING FORWARD.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE BIG EXCEPTION IS THE BLACK HILLS
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING, WHERE CLOUDS AND A FEW STORM CELLS HAVE
BUBBLED UP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS OF THIS WRITING, 1 PM, THESE
STORMS HAVEN'T LASTED LONG AND FADE OUT QUICKLY AFTER MATURING.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TRACK EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HAIL AND A
SECONDARY CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. OVERNIGHT THOUGH SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS DROPPING TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND START TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA.
AFTERNOON TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REACH THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LOW END CHANCES FOR SHORT LIVED, AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE BLACK
HILLS.
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING HOT WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100F FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS, HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW SO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED.
FOR A QUICK LOOK AT NEXT WEEK, THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE WOULD GIVE COOLER,
BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL, TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES, THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ SATURDAY TO 8 PM MDT /9
PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-
041>044-046-047-049-072>078.
WY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ054>056-058>060.
UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...SCHWEIGERT
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