281
FXUS63 KUNR 102028
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
228 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPS POSSIBLE AND DANGEROUS HEAT.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 70S/80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE, BUT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS
THROUGH 400 MB, NOT EXPECTING THESE SLOW-MOVING STORMS TO BE SEVERE.
COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT AND
OUR BORDERING ZONES AS A WEAK WAVES TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SATURDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP
AGAIN ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100F
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE HILLS. THIS
HEAT WAVE WILL LIKELY SET SOME DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA. LOOKING DEEPER INTO THE RECORDS AT UNR, THE MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER IS FOUR, WHICH HAS OCCURRED FIVE
TIMES. FOUR OF THOSE EVENTS WERE DURING THE DUST BOWL ERA OF THE
1930S. THE LAST ONE WAS IN LATE JULY 2007. THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO
TIE THAT RECORD. BASED ON HEAT INDICES, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS ALL THE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
BEGINNING 18Z SATURDAY ALL THE WAY UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. IF
WEDNESDAY ENDS UP BEING HOT AS WELL, WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THAT'S SIX DAYS FROM NOW, THERE IS PLENTY OF
TIME TO ASSESS THAT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS SUPPORTING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON
SUNDAY, WINDS MAY GUST 30 MPH, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY
AIR, MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DAYS WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ SATURDAY TO 8 PM MDT /9
PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-
041>044-046-047-049-072>078.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SDZ322>327-329-332.
WY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ054>056-058>060.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WYZ314>317.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SCHWEIGERT
FIRE WEATHER...13
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