436
FXUS63 KUNR 111133
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPS POSSIBLE AND DANGEROUS HEAT.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. WEATHER IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HOT TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS
NEARING OR REACHING 100 DEGREES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE
BLACK HILLS. MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL BE HIGH BASED AND LIKELY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 70S/80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS. WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE, BUT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS
THROUGH 400 MB, NOT EXPECTING THESE SLOW-MOVING STORMS TO BE SEVERE.
COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT AND
OUR BORDERING ZONES AS A WEAK WAVES TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SATURDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP
AGAIN ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100F
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE HILLS. THIS
HEAT WAVE WILL LIKELY SET SOME DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE
CWA. LOOKING DEEPER INTO THE RECORDS AT UNR, THE MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER IS FOUR, WHICH HAS OCCURRED FIVE
TIMES. FOUR OF THOSE EVENTS WERE DURING THE DUST BOWL ERA OF THE
1930S. THE LAST ONE WAS IN LATE JULY 2007. THERE IS A POTENTIAL TO
TIE THAT RECORD. BASED ON HEAT INDICES, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS ALL THE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
BEGINNING 18Z SATURDAY ALL THE WAY UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. IF
WEDNESDAY ENDS UP BEING HOT AS WELL, WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THAT'S SIX DAYS FROM NOW, THERE IS PLENTY OF
TIME TO ASSESS THAT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS SUPPORTING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON
SUNDAY, WINDS MAY GUST 30 MPH, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY
AIR, MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DAYS WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-
046-047-049-072>078.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SDZ322>327-329-332.
WY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ054>056-
058>060.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WYZ314>317.
UPDATE...WONG
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...DYE
FIRE WEATHER...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page