668
FXUS63 KUNR 112037
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
237 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE AND DANGEROUS HEAT.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VERY STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...SURFACE OBS
SHOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. KUNR
HAS REACHED 101F IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES, WHICH SETS A NEW DAILY
RECORD HIGH. SATELLITE AND KUDX RADAR SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. NO LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE SEEN, BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRIKES BEFORE PRECIP DISSIPATES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES APPEAR THIS PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND,
WHICH IS HELPFUL CONSIDERING THE DRY LIGHTNING CONCERN. S/SW FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAILY H70 TEMPS OF 15-20C WILL BRING TEMPS WELL
ABOVE 100F THROUGH TUESDAY...AND NOW WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY, AS MODELS ARE INCREASING TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING HEAT-RELATED
HEADLINES. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS. ON
SUNDAY, WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY
LOW HUMIDITY OF 15% OR LESS, WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY REQUIRE EXTENDING THE RED FLAG
WARNING ADDITIONAL DAYS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ322>327-
329-332.
WY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ054>056-058>060.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ314>317.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...GS
FIRE WEATHER...13
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