320
FXUS63 KUNR 241713
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1113 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD,
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE THIS EVENING
-DRIER PATTERN AS NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE THIS WEEK, WARMER TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BEHIND TODAY'S SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER
AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE FA. ONE MORE ROUND OF TS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW WEAKER CELLS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BH BEFORE DEEPER CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPS OVER SCENTRAL SD INVOF OF THE SFC TROUGH. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN SD AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THINGS
WILL DRY OUT AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE SW THIRD AS A SECONDARY
WAVE PUSHES THE REGION. HAVE LEFT SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. DRY MOST PLACES TUE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BH WHERE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE
IN PLACE FOR ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE AFTERNOON. SAME FOR WED AS A
WEAK IMPULSE WITH SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE MAY ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON THERE AND THE NORTHEAST WY
PLAINS. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS BY FRIDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD 90S ARE EXPECTED.
SEMI-UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT LL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER,THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE
NORTH OF THE FA AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS MT INTO
ND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE WY AND THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERN SD PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TRANSIENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ANY STORMS, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE SPOTTY. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...SE
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