354
FXUS63 KUNR 242357
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
557 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD,
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE THIS EVENING.
- DRIER PATTERN AS NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE THIS WEEK, WARMER TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BEHIND TODAY'S SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER
AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE FA. ONE MORE ROUND OF TS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW WEAKER CELLS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BH BEFORE DEEPER CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPS OVER SCENTRAL SD INVOF OF THE SFC TROUGH. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN SD AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THINGS
WILL DRY OUT AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW
ELEVATED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE SW THIRD AS A SECONDARY
WAVE PUSHES THE REGION. HAVE LEFT SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING. DRY MOST PLACES TUE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BH WHERE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE
IN PLACE FOR ISOLD SHRA/TS IN THE AFTERNOON. SAME FOR WED AS A
WEAK IMPULSE WITH SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE MAY ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON THERE AND THE NORTHEAST WY
PLAINS. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS BY FRIDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD 90S ARE EXPECTED.
SEMI-UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT LL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER,THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE
NORTH OF THE FA AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS MT INTO
ND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE BLACK HILLS IS RAPIDLY ENDING,
WITH ANY THREAT OF -TSRA AT KRAP DONE BY 01Z/7PM AT THE LATEST.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
OUT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS, WITH HAIL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND VSBY DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY,
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD HOLD
DRY, ALTHOUGH A CAM OR TWO ARE TRYING TO FIRE A SHOWER OR STORM
OFF THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A PROB30 FOR KRAP.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...KSMITH
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