193
FXUS63 KUNR 141809
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1209 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOK LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
- BECOMING WINDY ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY ARE THE WILDCARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN
CENTERED AROUND NARROWING DOWN THE LOCATION OF WHERE RAIN AND
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY AND WHEN. SO FAR, NO REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER, JUST SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND DRIFT INTO NE
WY AND W SD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
FROM THESE STORMS BUT GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TOMORROW SO EXPECT WINDS TO
SWING TO THE WEST AS THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH YOUR AREA. WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN NW SD.
MAINTAINED THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS INHERITED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 500HPA LOW SPINNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WA STATE WITH RIDGING SETTING UP FROM EASTERN MT INTO
EASTERN CO. UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS HAS TURNED MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE IS SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN WY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS LOW ARE ADVECTING IN A LOWER CLOUD DECK OUT OF NE
INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z ARE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRESENTS SOME INTERESTING
CHALLENGES. FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTS INTO THE FA
THIS EVENING, WITH STRENGTHENING 700HPA THETA-E FORCING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION, AS SEEN WITH INCREASING 850HPA DEWPOINTS. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. HI-RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO MIX DOWN THE
STRONG 700HPA AND 850HPA WINDS AS WELL. THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME
FOR SURE. ON MONDAY, THE RAIN WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE ALONG WITH MODEST CAA. BY 18Z MONDAY MODELS
ARE SHOWING FROM 4 TO 5 MB/3HRLY PRESSURE RISES ON BACKSIDE OF
FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY LINKED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS
OF OUR NORTHERN FA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS ALSO LEADS TO A
TRICKY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PARTS OF OUR NW ARE AT CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER LEVELS. THE UNKNOWN IS HOW MUCH RAIN THEY MAY RECEIVE
OVERNIGHT, HELPING TO PUT A SMALL DAMPER ON THOSE CRITICAL LEVELS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE MIGHT ONLY BE A NARROW WINDOW WHEN RH VALUES
AND WINDS MEET UP FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. FOR NOW, AM GOING TO
FOREGO ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AND LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE.
ALSO, GIVEN CAA AND ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER, LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
AFTER MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK STILL APPEARS TO BE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE WISE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS (MVFR TO LIFR) CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS MORNING, BUT ARE IN THE PROCESS OF QUICKLY
BURNING OFF AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND THE RESPONSIBLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE STRONG AND WIDESPREAD
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-35KTS, EXCEPT UP TO 50KTS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. NBM, HRRR, MOS,
AND HREF GUIDANCE ALL SUPPORT A SLOWER THAN USUAL/DIURNAL DECLINE
TO THE WINDS THIS EVENING (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT),
LINGERING AS LATE AS 07-10Z/1AM-4AM MDT BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 6KTS.
MIXING POTENTIAL TO THE SURFACE PER MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD
REMAIN EFFICIENT ENOUGH THAT LLWS CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MET AT KGCC OR KRAP. OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS...DRY, MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD. NEXT (LOW) CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
TUESDAY EVENING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
073-078.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...GS
DISCUSSION...HINTZ
AVIATION...KSMITH
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