083
FXUS63 KUNR 100348
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
948 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LAST INTO
SATURDAY.
- PATTERN CHANGE LATE THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW/LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS, SPILLING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT ENOUGH FOR LOWISH POPS IN THE WEST.
PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES IN/NEAR THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS ON THE LOWER SIDE GIVEN ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES SPREADS OF
10-15F. BEST POPS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S. (HIGHS LIKE THIS ARE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 TO 35
MPH.
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM, WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. EXPECTED HIGHS ARE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S AGAIN
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS, MORE INFORMATION CAN BE
FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
AFTER SATURDAY, A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HAPPEN.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SWING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AND THAT LOW IS
PROJECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BEFORE KICKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE THE CENTRAL US. THAT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA, HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE 50S
AND 60S AND LOW TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE 30S AND 40S.
THIS CHANGE WILL ALSO BRING BACK THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FIRST
ROUND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH POPS LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
BEYOND MONDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TREND IS THE SAME IN THE WEATHER MODEL PROJECTIONS; AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, THEN
AROUND MID-WEEK, THE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
STATES. BUT THE DETAILS IN THIS STORY ARE WHAT DIFFERS. THE GEFS
HAS A STRONGER LOW, WHEN COMPARED TO THE EURO. AND THE EURO ENS
HAS A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE, WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS. THESE
DIFFERENCES MEAN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH ROUND
OF RAIN AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE EVEN SOME
SCENARIOS THAT KEEP THE RAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA, LEAVING US DRY. SO
STAY PLUGGED INTO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 458 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-35KTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WY/BLACK HILLS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 936 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPS TO 15-20% WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
TIMES. THE LATEST HREF (WHICH DID VERY WELL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON) HAS
THE JOINT PROBABILITY (RH<=15%, WIND>=25MPH) OF RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA <20%, SO WILL NOT HOIST FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
SATURDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...HELGESON
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