463
FXUS63 KUNR 101838
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1238 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- PATTERN CHANGE TODAY AS COLD FRONT SETTLES IN LATER TONIGHT.
COOLER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP TROUGHING IS NOTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO WA WITH
A SECOND CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ND WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MT, SLOWLY PUSHING INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD. SURFACE WINDS IN NORTHWESTERN SD HAVE SHIFTED OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA. VERY HOT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AND TO LOW 90S,
WARMEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. GIVEN DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE, AND
ISOLATED COVERAGE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY.
HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CORES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH FRONTAL
POSITION A BIT UNCERTAIN SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALONG SD/NE BORDER (70S) AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH COOLER, YET
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
DISPLACED NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DEEP UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONG THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VERY WARM AND DRY TODAY WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SD AND THE WESTERN SD
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S COUPLED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN SE
MT/NW SD. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW RFW CRITERIA TODAY,
HOWEVER TRANSIENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN SD AND WESTERN SD NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTABLY HIGHER TOMORROW (MINIMUM RH 35-45
PERCENT ACROSS SW SD AND NEAR NE/SD BORDER; EVEN HIGHER NORTH OF
I-90).
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SE
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
FIRE WEATHER...SE
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