131
FXUS63 KUNR 111850
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1250 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THIS WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- NEAR-FREEZING TO FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.
- BREEZY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY; WATCHING HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN OR/SOUTHEASTERN WA WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ASCENT CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE
REGION. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND STRETCHES FROM UPPER MN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SD INTO NE.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA; HAVE
DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT WITH MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90) STRUGGLING TO PUSH OUT OF THE 50S TODAY.
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS AS SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. COOLER AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH A THREAT OF NEAR-FREEZING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE,
WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF HIGH WINDS (EPS GENERALLY ~40-50%
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 40 MPH) AND MANY MEMBERS (EPS/GEFS) PEAKING
WELL BELOW 45 MPH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE
INGREDIENTS AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR EAST,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREADS.
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE
AND A RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT PATCHY FOG AND MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CEILINGS ON THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS AND ALONG
THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS FOOTHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SE
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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