267
FXUS63 KUNR 141838
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1238 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY
AND SOUTHERN SD.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
SD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER WHERE 0.5-1.25" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
(PROBABILITY >0.5" ~70-80%). PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TAPER OFF
RAPIDLY CLOSER TO I-90 WITH SPOTTY, LIGHT AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-90.
RAIN ENDS THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 40 TO 55 MPH
GUSTS, STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD AND PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS. A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. TRANSIENT HIGH WIND GUSTS (> 60 MPH) ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY DO NOT WARRANT HIGH WIND HEADLINES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
FREEZING/SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
EARLY MORNING AVIATION CONCERNS HAVE LIFTED, LEAVING BEHIND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BUT THESE CONDITIONS WON'T LAST
LONG AS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
THE RAIN AND LOWERED CLOUDS SHOULD START IN NE WY AND FAR SW SD,
THEN SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT.
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT, LOWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN BLACK
HILLS. CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW
BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY , WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING LATER THURSDAY MORNING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-026-030>032-042-043-072-073-077-078.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SE
AVIATION...GS/JC
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