416
FXUS63 KUNR 150458
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1058 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY
AND WESTERN SD.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
OVERALL TREND CONTINUES, WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE TWEAKED POPS TONIGHT SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CAMS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. KEPT WITH THE TREND OF TONING
DOWN POST-FRONTAL WINDS FOR THURSDAY, AS THE NBM IS STILL RUNNING
PRETTY HIGH. HI-RES MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 45-55 MPH FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT.
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. FREEZE WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER AM HOLDING OFF, GIVEN
THE CURRENT HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
SD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER WHERE 0.5-1.25" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
(PROBABILITY >0.5" ~70-80%). PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TAPER OFF
RAPIDLY CLOSER TO I-90 WITH SPOTTY, LIGHT AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-90.
RAIN ENDS THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 40 TO 55 MPH
GUSTS, STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD AND PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS. A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. TRANSIENT HIGH WIND GUSTS (> 60 MPH) ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY DO NOT WARRANT HIGH WIND HEADLINES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
FREEZING/SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF WESTERN SD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED IN NORTHEASTERN WY, THOUGH
SOME SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DIMINISH AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BY THURS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTS UP TO 50KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SD
PLAINS, AND 40KTS FOR NORTHEASTERN WY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 11 PM MDT /MIDNIGHT
CDT/ THURSDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-026-030>032-041>043-
046-047-049-072-073-077-078.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...DYE
DISCUSSION...SE
AVIATION...SCHWEIGERT
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