797
FXUS63 KUNR 151103
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL END THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.
- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 55 MPH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT.
- DRY AND NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MOST DAYS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
OVERALL TREND CONTINUES, WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE TWEAKED POPS TONIGHT SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CAMS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. KEPT WITH THE TREND OF TONING
DOWN POST-FRONTAL WINDS FOR THURSDAY, AS THE NBM IS STILL RUNNING
PRETTY HIGH. HI-RES MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 45-55 MPH FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT.
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. FREEZE WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER AM HOLDING OFF, GIVEN
THE CURRENT HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
SD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER WHERE 0.5-1.25" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
(PROBABILITY >0.5" ~70-80%). PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TAPER OFF
RAPIDLY CLOSER TO I-90 WITH SPOTTY, LIGHT AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-90.
RAIN ENDS THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 40 TO 55 MPH
GUSTS, STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD AND PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS. A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. TRANSIENT HIGH WIND GUSTS (> 60 MPH) ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY DO NOT WARRANT HIGH WIND HEADLINES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
FREEZING/SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER SW TO SCENTRAL SD WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL
SD. GUSTS UP TO 50KT ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS ACROSS NE WY WILL GUST
UP TO 35KT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-026-030>032-041>043-072-073-077-078.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ046-047-049.
WY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
WYZ054>056-058>060.
UPDATE...DYE
DISCUSSION...SE
AVIATION...13
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