257
ACUS02 KWNS 301721
SWODY2
SPC AC 301720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST THU JAN 30 2020
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS...
..SUMMARY
A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
..SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL ADVANCE FROM THE TX COAST AND
NORTHWESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A RELATED, WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A
REMNANT FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE FL STRAITS, KEYS, AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF SOUTHERN FL BY
FRIDAY EVENING. MID 60S TO LOW 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE WARM FRONT.
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTH FL. EVEN SO,
RELATIVELY MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY FRIDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM FRIDAY EVENING ONWARD ACROSS THIS REGION.
WEAK DESTABILIZATION, WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 250-1000 J/KG, SHOULD
BE PRESENT, WITH GREATER VALUES OVER THE KEYS WHERE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY MODEST, STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50+ KT WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY
ALSO OCCUR, WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ENLARGED.
..GLEASON.. 01/30/2020
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