605
ACUS11 KWNS 231956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231956
TXZ000-232130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...TRANS-PECOS/LOWER PECOS VALLEY OF TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 231956Z - 232130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS OF 50-65 MPH AND SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH A COUPLE STORMS IN FAR WEST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED, LOWER-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TX
TRANS-PECOS AND SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY BEFORE
WEAKENING. STEEP LOWER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONDUCTIVE TO
MICROBURSTS BENEATH GENERALLY SMALL HAIL CORES ALOFT. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOCALIZED IN SPACE/SHORT IN TIME, AND MARGINAL IN INTENSITY.
..GRAMS/SMITH.. 04/23/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30800352 31180233 31110184 30840152 30280160 30140176
30020246 30060315 30350368 30640376 30800352
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