869
ACUS01 KWNS 241622
SWODY1
SPC AC 241620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS.
..WEST CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MIDLEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CA/BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS AND IT WILL
MOVE INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ACT TO MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF TX SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT INITIALLY ANALYZED THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD. LATE MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN/CONCHO VALLEY INDICATE LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS. THE 12Z MAF
RAOB SHOWED A 7.9 DEG C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE, INDICATIVE OF AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AT BEST IS EXPECTED BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE, THEREBY LIMITING POTENTIAL STORM COVERAGE. DESPITE
THE ASSOCIATED FORCING/CAPPING CONCERNS, CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
ERODE CONSIDERABLY BY 21-00Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING STORM
DEVELOPMENT, BUT ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON --PERHAPS DELAYED
A BIT DUE TO CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD COVER-- WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
BUOYANCY (2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE). RELATIVELY WEAK BUT VEERING WINDS
IN THE LOW LEVELS BENEATH 65-KT WESTERLY 250-MB FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. DEEPER MIXING OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME AND LEAD TO A COUPLE OF STORMS BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE. ISOLATED VERY LARGE
HAIL UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 60-70
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS
EVENING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW
TIME WINDOW THIS EVENING BEFORE INHIBITION INCREASES AND STORMS
WEAKEN.
..OK INTO KS THROUGH TONIGHT
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER LATE THIS MORNING ARE
LIKELY THE RESULT OF LOW-MIDLEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK BUOYANCY
ROOTED NEAR 700 MB. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND WHETHER A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT DEVELOPS. THE
MORE PROBABLE RISK FOR ELEVATED STORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT COINCIDENT
WITH STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
..SMITH/MOORE.. 04/24/2024
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