605
FNUS22 KWNS 241807
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...FAR
WESTERN TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO SHOW CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
SURFACE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN A POST-DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT
TOMORROW (THURSDAY AFTERNOON). BEHIND THE DRYLINE, RH MAY DROP BELOW
10 PERCENT IN SOME SPOTS AMID WIDESPREAD 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH HIGHER GUSTS) FOR SEVERAL HOURS,
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. FUELS ARE AT LEAST
MODESTLY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD, THOUGH ERCS STILL APPEAR TO BE
BELOW (AND IN SOME PLACES, WELL BELOW) THE 90TH PERCENTILE,
PRECLUDING THE ADDITION OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS.
..SQUITIERI.. 04/24/2024
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0200 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024/
..SYNOPSIS
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY, WHILE A
RELATED 60-70 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN
INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, A LEE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS, WHILE A SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING
DRYLINE SHARPENS OVER PARTS OF WEST TX. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION WILL FAVOR AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH-END CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BEHIND THE DRYLINE, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING AND DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, CHARACTERIZED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND SINGLE-DIGIT TO LOWER-TEENS RH.
HERE, A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PERIPHERAL TO THE
DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE, COUPLED WITH MIXING INTO THE STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WILL YIELD 30 MPH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH) ACROSS
EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHEASTERN CO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE EXTREMELY CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, A
POTENTIAL LACK OF ABUNDANT AND VERY DRY FUELS PRECLUDES EXTREMELY
CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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