997
ACUS11 KWNS 072304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072304
TXZ000-080100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CST THU NOV 07 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 072304Z - 080100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH FURTHER
UPSCALE GROWTH POSSIBLE INTO MID TO LATE EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL INITIALLY, THEN PERHAPS A FEW STRONG SURFACE
GUSTS LATER THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES APPEARS LOW, BUT
PERHAPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN THE PROCESS OF INITIATING
NEAR/SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO. THIS APPEARS
FOCUSED ALONG A DIFFUSE DRYLINE STRUCTURE, NEAR ITS INTERSECTION
WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN BROAD WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STEEP, A
FAIRLY DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE UP TO 1500
J/KG, BENEATH STRONG, BROADLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW.
DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT,
CONTINUING MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKENED
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL FURTHER
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH. GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT, THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IN
STRONGER STORMS INITIALLY, THEN PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY SLOWLY
SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD.
..KERR/GLEASON.. 11/07/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31360098 32070070 32549982 31650004 31100038 30890090
31070105 31360098
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