428
ACUS11 KWNS 080152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080151
TXZ000-080245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CST THU NOV 07 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707...
VALID 080151Z - 080245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 707
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSING A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH LATE
EVENING, SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO INTO AND NORTHEAST OF THE SAN
ANGELO VICINITY.
DISCUSSION...INITIAL STRONGER CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY CONSOLIDATED
INTO ONE SMALL CLUSTER WITH AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL, LIKELY AIDED BY
LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION MIGHT NOW BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR AND PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO ACQUIRE MORE
STABLE UPDRAFT INFLOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO, MORE DISCRETE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MID-LEVEL INHIBITION. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED ALONG A REMNANT DRYLINE WHERE IT IS BEING
OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONTAL SURGE. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID
REFRESH SUGGESTS THIS MIGHT BECOME A FOCUS FOR INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 04-06Z, THOUGH THE CONVECTION MAY
TEND TO INTENSIFY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
..KERR.. 11/08/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31360085 32129992 32299946 32049878 31429999 30120122
30850140 31360085
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