221
ACUS02 KWNS 110644
SWODY2
SPC AC 110642
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CST MON NOV 11 2024
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TX TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH/ROLLING PLAINS ON TUESDAY EVENING.
..SOUTHERN HIGH/ROLLING PLAINS
ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BUCKLE AS A
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST. THIS
TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE GREAT PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY
DOWNSTREAM WILL BE LACKING, OWING IN PART TO THE PRECEDING PRESENCE
OF POST-TC RAFAEL IN THE WESTERN GULF. MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN WILL
STILL EMANATE NORTHWARD FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO. LOW TO MID 50S
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z, WITH UPPER
50S FARTHER SOUTH IN WEST TX. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NARROW RIBBON OF
WEAK BUOYANCY (MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG), AHEAD OF A SHARPENING
SURFACE TROUGH.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BECOME
SUSTAINED PRIOR TO SUNSET, GIVEN THE LIMITED BUOYANCY AND RATHER DRY
MID-LEVELS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. MORE PROBABLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING, AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURS. FAVORABLE
SPEED SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR MODEST, AND
THIS MAY HOLD HAIL MAGNITUDES TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO THE EARLY/WESTERN PORTION OF
SUSTAINED-STORM ACTIVITY, BUT SMALL HAIL MAY PERSIST
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN PARTS OF OK/KS TUESDAY NIGHT.
..GRAMS.. 11/11/2024
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