087
ACUS11 KWNS 130327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130327
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 130327Z - 130600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE EVOLUTION OF A NARROW LINE OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE
ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY INCLUDE RAPID, BUT SHORT-LIVED,
INITIAL INTENSIFICATION, ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PERIOD WITH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ON SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE THE
VICINITY OF MODEST SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES, IT
APPEARS THAT THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH TEXAS
PANHANDLE VICINITY. SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS POSSIBLE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BEFORE AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
INCREASINGLY OVERTAKES THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE THROUGH
03-05Z.
THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION NOW APPEARS GRADUALLY UNDERWAY WEST OF
LINE FROM GARDEN CITY THROUGH HILL CITY KS, AIDED BY WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER, THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING,
AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, NOW APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO
BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY POTENTIAL VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ONCE THIS INTERACTS WITH THE PLUME OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN, MORE RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY, AND THE QUICK
EVOLUTION OF A NARROW LINE SEEMS PROBABLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE MODE, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, AND THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
SURFACE GUSTS SEEMS LIMITED, AS THE CONVECTION QUICKLY PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS.
..KERR/SMITH.. 11/13/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37120158 37920116 38470100 38509977 35160129 35800197
37120158
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