522
ACUS03 KWNS 141913
SWODY3
SPC AC 141913
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO EVOLVE OUT OF THIS PARENT
TROUGHING AS IT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
THE NORTHERNMOST WAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE SOUTHERNMOST WAVE PROGRESSING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND BETWEEN THESE TWO SHORTWAVES, FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY BEGIN THE DAY OVER WESTERN SD BEFORE THEN PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWESTERN MN
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW.
AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THIS EARLY-STAGE
MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY BUOYANCY. A PLUME OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INTO THE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VERY
LOW.
..MOSIER.. 11/14/2024
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