704
ACUS02 KWNS 151707
SWODY2
SPC AC 151705
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, BUT NO SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA COAST, COVERING
MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE A PAIR OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EVOLVE
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD. THE NORTHERNMOST SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE
SOUTHERNMOST WAVE PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CA INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND BETWEEN
THESE TWO SHORTWAVES, FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY BEGIN THE DAY OVER WESTERN SD BEFORE THEN PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWESTERN MN
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW.
AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THIS EARLY-STAGE
MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY BUOYANCY. A PLUME OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION FARTHER
NORTH, BEGINNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIMITED BUOYANCY THROUGHOUT THESE
AREAS WILL KEEP STORM STRENGTH MODEST AND KEEPING THE
SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOW.
..MOSIER.. 11/15/2024
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