983
ACUS03 KWNS 151917
SWODY3
SPC AC 151916
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN,
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING,
POSING A RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
A SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN/MATURE AS
IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS
SHORTWAVE TO HAVE MATURED INTO AN MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE, WITH THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST OK/FAR NORTHWEST TX.
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, WITH A 80-100 KT
500-MB JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM AND EJECTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SUBSTANTIAL MASS RESPONSE WILL PRECEDE THIS WAVE, WITH NOTABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE PERMIAN BASIN/TX SOUTH
PLAINS AHEAD THE SURFACE LOW (AND ATTENDANT DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT)
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. EVEN WITH THIS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED (I.E. MLCAPE
LESS THAN 800 J/KG), OWING PREDOMINANTLY TO POOR LAPSE RATES. THIS
MINIMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE COUNTERED BY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AS THE WAVE BECOMES INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED. 12-HR
HEIGHT FALLS FROM 120 TO 150 M ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM 00Z TO 12Z MONDAY.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FIRST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NM/FAR WEST TX EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING WHILE THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE PRECEDING DRYING AND SHARPEN. THIS COLD FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TX EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ANTICIPATED ALONG
THIS FRONT. A LINEAR STORM MODE IS ANTICIPATED, WITH STRONG GUSTS AS
THE PRIMARY RISK. A FEW EMBEDDED QLCS CIRCULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WHERE SOME BACKING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. GIVEN THE ROBUST LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW, THERE MAY BE A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL
WHERE BUOYANCY, LIFT, AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ALIGN.
HOWEVER, GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN THESE MESOSCALE DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE, WILL MAINTAIN 15%/SLIGHT-RISK-EQUIVALENT WITH THIS
OUTLOOK.
..MOSIER.. 11/15/2024
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