957
ACUS11 KWNS 180253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180253
TXZ000-180500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0853 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PECOS AND CONCHO VALLEYS OF TEXAS NORTH INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 180253Z - 180500Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE-WEATHER RISK WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK
INITIALLY, BEFORE TORNADO THREAT RAMPS UP LATER TONIGHT. AN
INITIAL, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
REGION AND VICINITY. THIS CONVECTIVE INCREASE IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF
A VIGOROUS MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH
TIME ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO, AND APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WAST TEXAS. AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER WESTERN TEXAS, WITH THE LOW SHIFTING
NORTHWARD AS IT STRENGTHENS TO A POSITION OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION NEAR DAYBREAK.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS, AND SOUTHEASTERLIES AT LOW-LEVELS
RESPOND/STRENGTHEN, A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LYING
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD -- ALLOWING AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST WARM SECTOR TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME, MODEST INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF TEXAS, DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. STILL, INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED/INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM FAR WEST TEXAS TO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD, AN EVOLVING
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS -- BECOMING A
FOCUS FOR INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED STORMS. GRADUAL MOISTENING AND
SOME STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL ALLOW MODEST INCREASES IN
CAPE, FURTHER SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
THE WIND FIELD PRECEDING THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM IS QUITE STRONG,
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, STORM MODE WILL
LIKELY TEND TOWARD A MORE LINEAR CONFIGURATION, WITH SMALL-SCALE
BOWING SEGMENTS EXPECTED. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL THEREFORE BECOME
AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY WITH TIME. DESPITE FAVORABLY VEERING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH HEIGHT, GREATER TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY BE
REALIZED LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN TANDEM WITH THE
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THETA-E.
..GOSS/HART.. 11/18/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30500320 32180266 34000133 33730002 33019896 31559970
30510143 30500320
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