996
ACUS11 KWNS 180536
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180536
TXZ000-180730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 709...
VALID 180536Z - 180730Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 709
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG STORMS CONTINUE IN A FRONTAL BAND CROSSING WESTERN
TEXAS, WHERE DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF LOCALLY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ORGANIZING/MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AT THIS TIME. VERY
STRONG FLOW ALOFT -- INCLUDING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT JUST 1KM AGL
-- CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOCAL STORM ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING BOWING
SEGMENTS AT LEAST TRANSIENTLY ORGANIZING WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND.
AT THIS TIME, WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR, IN TERMS
OF MORE ROBUST SEVERE RISK. WITH THAT SAID, A SURFACE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES SHIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS, AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A HIGH THETA-E (LOW 70S DEWPOINTS)
AIRMASS. AS STORMS ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD, AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
CONTINUES ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD, AN EVENTUAL UPTICK IN RISK IS
EXPECTED.
..GOSS.. 11/18/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30500320 32180266 34000133 33730002 33019896 31559970
30510143 30500320
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