439
ACUS11 KWNS 181529
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181529
OKZ000-TXZ000-181730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181529Z - 181730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MESOVORTICES WITHIN A LINE OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS.
A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF GREATER DEEPENING INTO THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURS.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL TRANSIENT AND GENERALLY WEAK MESOVORTICES HAVE
BEEN NOTED AROUND THE METROPLEX WITH A LARGELY NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS QUITE
STRONG AHEAD OF THE LINE PER AREA VWPS AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE DEPTH HAS BEEN A LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE
PERSISTENT/STRONGER MESOVORTICES, WITH A LACK OF CG LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION AND ECHO TOPS TO AROUND 25K FT. IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
TIP OF 67-68 F SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR A CONSISTENT
SEVERE THREAT. THIS SHOULD TEND TO RIPPLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE OCCLUDES THE RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME EMANATING NORTH ACROSS EAST TX.
..GRAMS/SMITH.. 11/18/2024
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32789687 33489682 33939649 34099583 33909504 33469499
32919497 32479503 32069524 31459567 31179641 31449690
32789687
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