672
ACUS02 KWNS 181703
SWODY2
SPC AC 181702
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES ON
TUESDAY.
..CENTRAL GULF COAST
THE POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST ON D1/MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKEN ON
D2/TUESDAY. A SLOW ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BE LEFT IN ITS WAKE
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AN
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ALL TIME DAILY
MAXIMUM PWAT VALUES LIKELY FROM SLIDELL, LA TO WILMINGTON, OH WITH
LIKELY TOP 5 MONTHLY ALL TIME MAXIMUM VALUES. AS A RESULT, EXTENSIVE
CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
WHICH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION, FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING
THROUGH THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE MEAGER INSTABILITY AND LACK
OF FORCING WILL LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR WHERE
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
INSTABILITY AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
LA, FAR SOUTHERN MS/AL, AND THE FL PANHANDLE, WHERE LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT AROUND 250-500 J/KG MLCAPE. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITH 40
KNOTS OF FLOW AT 1KM AND LOW-LEVEL VEERING WINDS. THEREFORE, SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP IN THIS REGION DURING THE DAY.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
AFTER 06Z WED AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT AND 200-400 J/KG MLCAPE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM GIVEN AROUND 40 KNOTS OF SYNOPTIC FLOW
AROUND 500 METERS ABOVE THE SURFACE.
..BENTLEY.. 11/18/2024
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